Unintended Consequences
A noted trading author, Mark Douglas, once wrote “every moment in the market is unique” – you can definitely say that again! And perhaps there has never been a market dynamic as unique as the current...
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Is it Time for a Variant View on Gold?
2013 has been a challenging year for gold investors and the current macroeconomic environment appears to be highly unfavorable for the yellow metal – gold currently faces its most challenging...
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Gold has Become Dormant
Gold volatility, both realized and implied via GLD options, has dropped to the lowest levels since the April crash: Click to enlarge The average true range (Daily ATR-14) and CBOE gold volatility index...
View ArticleCan Gold Reach $1400 in March?
This morning gold is up over $30/ounce on a combination of Russia/Ukraine fears and speculation that the ECB might announce an “inflation program” on Thursday morning: Click to enlarge Just overhead...
View ArticleECB Set to Launch QE on Thursday
Growing disinflationary headwinds are likely to push the European Central Bank (ECB) toward launching a 300-500 billion euro asset purchase program on Thursday morning. Such a monumental shift in...
View ArticleThe ECB is on the Cusp
The Euro Area continues to face challenging disinflationary headwinds which have vexed ECB policymakers for the past couple of years: Click to enlarge After this morning’s ECB statement and Mario...
View ArticleIs The Euro Finally Set for A Tumble?
As core eurozone member countries such as France and Italy continue to grumble about the euro being too strong, the single currency has continued to soar, nearly reaching 1.4000 vs. the USD this...
View ArticleEnter the Draghi
ECB President Mario Draghi brought the “goods” this morning and the only question that remains is whether any of this “stimulus” will actually flow through to the real economy – once again the ECB...
View Article4 Fundamental Reasons Gold is Still in a Super Cycle
The wild excitement and crazy price fluctuations of 2011 seem to be a distant memory. Meanwhile, the mainstream financial media barely talks about gold and most portfolio managers are underweight...
View ArticleThe Good Reads
Some quality material we are reading this morning: FT - ECB acts to boost eurozone with rate cut and asset purchases Ryan Detrick - Bears at Their Lowest Level Since 1987. Now What? Howard Marks - Risk...
View ArticleThe Central Banks Aren’t Done Yet
The ECB openly entered the quantitative easing game (QE) this morning with a plan to purchase a “broad portfolio of transparent asset backed securities”. The chart below clearly illustrates why the ECB...
View ArticleThe Good Reads
A busy morning thus far, here is some of what we are reading: Bloomberg – “Fed Scrutiny of Leveraged Loans Grows Along With Bubble Concern” Hulbert – “Wait for one more bounce in stocks before a broad...
View ArticleThe Good Reads
Some quality material we are reading this weekend: BBC Video – “Is this Iranian the most powerful man in Iraq?” WaPo – “Compromise needed on smartphone encryption” BloombergView – “ECB Drops Anchor as...
View ArticleIntriguing Crossroads in the Euro
An excellent post by the McClellan Market Report on the euro (EUR/USD) prompted me to think about the bigger picture for EUR/USD and what might transpire over the coming weeks. As it stands now the...
View ArticleGold Déjà vu to Summer 2012
The past week has been a powerful one for gold and gold mining equities: We saw gold dip under $1170 on the first trading day of the year only to reverse $50+ higher during the subsequent 3 sessions...
View ArticleHow Will QE from the ECB Affect Gold?
Via Energy and Gold.com It is now a virtual certainty that the ECB will announce some sort of large scale asset purchase program (LSAP) on January 22nd. What’s not clear is the exact size of the...
View ArticleWhy the Consensus Bearish View on Gold is Misplaced
Via Energy and Gold.com This is from the latest Morgan Stanley “Commodity Manual”: This is part of the gold note contained in this report and also happens to be the sort of consensus sell-side research...
View ArticleThe Summer 2012 Analog in Gold Continues – What’s Next?
Via Energy and Gold.com: As pointed out a couple of weeks ago gold and gold stocks have been closely following the price pattern from August/September 2012 just before the Fed announced QE3. The analog...
View Article3 Ways to Play the ECB Announcement
Via Energy and Gold.com: Tomorrow morning (North American time) the ECB will make its much awaited announcement which is almost sure to include some form of quantitative easing program. A series of...
View ArticleThe Charts of the Week
Via Energy and Gold.com: Small speculators more than doubled their net length in gold futures ahead of the ECB’s quantitative easing announcement on Thursday: This is the largest net long position in...
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